光大期货能化商品日报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - Asphalt: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - Polyester: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - Rubber: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - Methanol: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - Polyolefins: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - Inter - commodity Spreads: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - Production Profits: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]