贵金属日评：英德法30年期国债收益率创多年新高，美国8月ISM制造业PMI连续六个月萎缩-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global long - term bonds are facing a "Black September". Political crises and fiscal deficits have pushed the 30 - year bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France to multi - year highs [1] - The import tariffs in the US have raised commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate. Fed Chairman Powell's remarks due to weak employment supply - demand make the September interest - rate cut expectation almost certain, but the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI on September 5th and 11th should be monitored [1] - The European Central Bank has paused interest - rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. With the eurozone and Germany and France's manufacturing PMI in August higher than expected and previous values, and the CPI annual rates also higher, the ECB may cut interest rates at most twice before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce its holdings of £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. Given economic data, it may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce its quarterly government bond purchases from ¥400 billion to ¥200 billion in April 2026. With economic data and the US Treasury Secretary's call for a rate hike, there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1] - The US August ISM manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] - Metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly place long orders when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Market Data Gold - Shanghai Gold: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are provided for different dates. For example, on September 2, 2025, the closing price was 804.32, and the trading volume was 199,052.00 [1] - COMEX Gold: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are also given. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 3599.50 [1] - London Gold: The spot price on September 2, 2025, was 3490.00. Data on ETF holdings are also provided, such as the SPDR Gold ETF holding 990.56 on that day [1] Silver - Shanghai Silver: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, basis, and inventory data are presented. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 9800.00, and the trading volume was 444,734.00 [1] - COMEX Silver: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are provided. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 41.73 [1] - London Silver: The spot price on September 2, 2025, was 40.52. Data on ETF holdings are also given, like the US iShare Silver ETF holding 15366.48 on that day [1] Price Ratios - Ratios between gold and silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) are presented, such as the London gold - to - silver ratio being 86.13 on September 2, 2025 [1] Other Commodities - Prices of INE crude oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore are provided with their changes compared to previous days and weeks [1] Interest Rates - Interest rates of major countries are given, including the US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield (4.2800 on September 2, 2025), the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield, and the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate [1] Stock Indices - Closing prices and changes of major global stock indices (Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, Nikkei 225, South Korea Composite Index) are presented [1] Exchange Rates - Exchange rates such as the US dollar index, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are provided with their changes [1]