KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-03 04:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guolian Minsheng (601456.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue due to the consolidation of Minsheng Securities, with a projected growth in net profit for the years 2025-2027 [5][6] - The company achieved a remarkable year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 4.01 billion and net profit at 1.13 billion, representing increases of 269% and 1185% respectively [5][6] - The report anticipates continued strong performance driven by the integration of Minsheng Securities, with expected net profits of 2.19 billion, 2.29 billion, and 2.73 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a net income of 1.13 billion, with a quarterly net profit of 750 million, reflecting a 100% increase from the previous quarter [5][6] - The annualized weighted average ROE is 5.0%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s brokerage business net income for the first half of 2025 was 905 million, up 224% year-on-year, benefiting from active market trading and an increase in clients [6] - Investment income surged to 2.1 billion, a 456% increase year-on-year, with a self-operated investment return rate of 2.5% [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 8.705 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 224.4% [8][11] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2.19 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 451.2% [8][11] - The report outlines a gross margin of 32.2% and a net margin of 25.2% for 2025 [8][11] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected at 1.3 for 2025, with estimates of 1.2 for 2026 and 2027 [5][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 30.9 for 2025, decreasing to 24.8 by 2027 [8][11]