新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-3）-20250903

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - Coal and coke: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - Rolled steel: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - Glass: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - Pulp: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - Logs: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - Meals: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - PX: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - PTA: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - MEG: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - PR: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - PF: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]