金融期货早班车-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, but note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward shift in risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index declined 2.13% to 1328.28 points. Market turnover was 29,124 billion yuan, an increase of 1,348 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+1.95%), public utilities (+0.99%), and household appliances (+0.91%) led the gains, while communication (-5.73%), computer (-4.06%), and electronics (-3.85%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1,257, 113, and 4,055 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 720, - 477, 254, and 943 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 588, - 244, +245, and +587 billion yuan [2] - For the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH, the basis was 111.68, 110.49, 14.85, and 1.68 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.63%, - 14.17%, - 2.95%, and - 0.5% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 8%, 29%, and 39% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.375, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.61, up 0.96 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.741, up 0.84 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.129, up 3.43 bps [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.007, and an IRR of 1.46%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.069, and an IRR of 1.2%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.082, and an IRR of 1.15%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.185, and an IRR of 0.95% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 2,557 billion yuan and withdrew 4,058 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10] - Based on the comparison of medium - term data of each module with the same period in the past five years, positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening in sentiment, and zero scores indicate little change in sentiment [13]