国债期货日报：权益回调，国债期货全线收涨-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is suppressed by the rising risk appetite driven by the strong stock market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.02%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [9]. - The US dollar index is 98.32, with a day - on - day increase of 0.63 (+0.64%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1402, with a day - on - day increase of 0.012 (+0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.49%); DR007 is 1.44, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); R007 is 1.67, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.26 (-13.67%); The inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.55, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.36%); AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.36%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation funds trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the state - owned development bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [12][13][21]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [24][30]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), (2TS - 3TF + T) [27][32][33]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [35][38][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [47][53]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [54][55][58]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62].