有色商品日报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated higher overnight. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. LME copper inventory decreased by 100 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2932 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 699 tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" is a traditional consumption peak season in China, and refined copper consumption is expected to be boosted. However, the US recession expectation and high copper prices may limit the upside of prices [1]. - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a strong - fluctuating trend overnight. Alumina should be shorted on rallies, but chasing short positions is not recommended. Downstream sectors are stocking up quickly before the peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. The aluminum industry profit continues to shift from upstream to downstream [1][2]. - LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined overnight. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory pressure may emerge, while the cost support is strengthening. Ternary demand in the new energy sector is gradually strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. First - grade nickel is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight copper prices rose. The US manufacturing index was in contraction, with new orders expanding for the first time this year. LME, Comex, and SHFE inventories changed. The "Golden September and Silver October" may boost refined copper consumption, but the US recession and high prices may limit the upside [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina复产 increased, and the surplus expectation was strengthened. Downstream stocking is fast, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations. The industry profit is shifting downstream [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and Shanghai nickel declined. Inventory increased, and nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory pressure may appear, and new energy demand is strengthening [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 245 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2374 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 699 tons. The active contract import profit increased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged. LME inventory decreased by 1525 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 982 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 35 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased. The inventory of LME decreased by 1450 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 991 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 275 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 390 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 504 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 275 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 2538 yuan/ton [5]. - Tin: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.2%. LME inventory increased by 20 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 75 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 28963 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: There are charts showing the spot premium of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: There are charts showing the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][21]. - LME Inventory: There are charts showing the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - Social Inventory: There are charts showing the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - Smelting Profit: There are charts showing the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who are all experienced in non - ferrous metal research and have relevant qualifications and achievements [50][51].