光大期货农产品日报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products on September 3, 2025, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and relevant influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies for each variety [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Corn: On Tuesday, corn prices rose with reduced positions. The 9 - month contract is approaching delivery, and the 11 - month contract's positions continue to decline. The spot market expects an increase in supply before the new grain is listed, and prices are weak. In the Northeast, prices are mainly weak. New corn may be listed in Liaoning Heishan from September 5 - 10. Rain in North China affected corn, with some enterprise prices up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for new corn. Technically, the 11 - month contract had six consecutive positive days, with large price fluctuations. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view before the new grain is listed [2] - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to low demand expectations. US soybean meal followed, while US soybean oil rose. US soybean weekly export inspection was 47.2 tons, and the monthly crushing volume in July was 614 tons. The excellent - good rate was 65%. Domestically, soybean meal prices oscillated. Brazilian soybean premiums fell, and domestic inventories increased. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [2] - Oils: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose due to bargain - hunting and strong exports. Indian palm oil imports in August increased significantly. Domestically, oil prices rose, with palm oil performing the best. However, weak consumption and high inventories limited the increase. It is recommended to go long in the short - term [2] - Eggs: On Tuesday, the main 2510 egg contract oscillated at a low level and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some small increases. Seasonally, egg prices should rebound in late August, but supply pressure keeps prices weak. In the long - term, pay attention to old hen culling [2][3] - Hogs: On Tuesday, the main 2511 hog futures contract oscillated weakly and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with regional differences. The supply in the north increased, and prices fell, while the south had price support. The market expects prices to oscillate, and attention should be paid to future demand and market sentiment [3] 3.2 Market Information - Ukraine will impose a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, then it will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 30.53% (SGS data) or 15.37% (AmSpec data) compared to the previous month, and production decreased by 2.65% [4] - Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% to 99.3 tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 35.5 tons [4] - As of September 1, Ukrainian farmers had sown 37.71 hectares of winter rapeseed, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated area [5] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads (1 - 5 spreads) and contract basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][25] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher for eggs and hogs. They have rich experience and many honors [27]