光大期货软商品日报-20250903

Group 1: Research Views - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.74%, closing at 66.05 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.18% to 14,045 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 7,167 hands to 521,800 hands. The 3128B - grade cotton spot price index was about 15,200 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. The U.S. cotton price remained weakly volatile due to macro - level factors and limited fundamental drivers. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained a volatile trend. The 11 - contract is supported by tight old - cotton inventory, but the support will weaken as new cotton is listed. The 01 - contract has both long and short drivers, with strong support at the bottom based on seed - cotton purchase cost, and is expected to be in a firm and volatile state [2]. - For sugar, the International Sugar Organization predicts a supply deficit of only 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant difference from the revised 4.879 million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, and consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, up 771,000 tons. Domestic sugar prices are showing a downward trend, and the futures price may continue to seek support. Attention should be paid to imported sugar [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 50 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,367 yuan, down 87 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,324 yuan per ton, down 68 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,412 yuan per ton, down 67 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 38 yuan, up 3 yuan; the main - contract basis is 356 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning spot price is 5,900 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,955 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Group 3: Market Information - On September 2, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,131, down 189 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 2, the domestic cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,324 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,406 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,440 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,517 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 2, the comprehensive yarn load was 49.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 27, down 0.1; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 49.3, up 0.1; and the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 31.2, down 0.1 [4]. - On September 2, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,955 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 2, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,202, down 232 from the previous trading day, with 6 valid forecasts [5]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of cotton and sugar, such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][10][15][18] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy, and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile - category senior analyst title [22].