Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.3% to 72,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 850 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 850 yuan/ton to 75,200 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 300 yuan/ton to 76,350 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 810 tons to 32,007 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. Weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 37 tons to 2,515 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 9 tons to 1,766 tons. In terms of demand, according to the production scheduling data of market consulting agencies, the production scheduling of cathode materials in September increased by 5 - 6% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, decreasing by 407 tons to 141,136 tons. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 1,293 tons to 52,800 tons, intermediate link inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 45,000 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 43,336 tons, indicating restocking in the downstream and intermediate links and continuous destocking upstream [3]. - Recently, the price has dropped rapidly. In the short term, the market is continuously digesting the increase brought about by the suspension of production at Jianxiakeng. After the digestion is completed, the market may re - price the expectations regarding the mining license issue. The fundamentals in September are relatively good, but attention should be paid to September 30, as Jiangxi lithium mining projects need to complete report compilation and submission by this date, and there may be a conclusion regarding the mining license issues of other projects at that time [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes on September 2, 2025 [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory situation in the lithium carbonate market [3]. - Analysis of short - term price trends and attention points in September [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes of various products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain from September 1 to September 2, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, and other products [5]. - Price differences between different products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain, such as the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33][34]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025 [37][39]. 3.7 Production Costs - Chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [43].
光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250903
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 06:19