铜：市场情绪回暖，价格上涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment for copper has warmed up, leading to a price increase [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,660 with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 80,410 with a night - session increase of 0.94%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,014 with a daily increase of 1.40%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 61,677, a decrease of 16,804 from the previous day, and the position was 180,065, a decrease of 579. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,784, an increase of 16,271, and the position was 278,000, an increase of 8,630 [1] - Inventory Data: The Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 19,501, a decrease of 699. The LME Copper inventory was 158,775, a decrease of 100, and the注销仓单 ratio was 8.23%, a decrease of 0.06% [1] - Spread Data: The LME copper premium/discount and bonded - area warrant premium changed by 16.69 and 0 respectively. The bonded - area bill of lading premium decreased by 1. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 300. The spot - to - futures near - month spread decreased by 15. The near - month contract to the first - consecutive contract spread increased by 30. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the first - consecutive contract was 195. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash increased by 75. The spread between the Shanghai Copper third - consecutive contract and LME 3M increased by 46. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper increased by 176. The recycled copper import profit and loss increased by 486 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in August contracted for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. Trump will request the Supreme Court to "quickly rule" on the global tariff case, and if he wins, the stock market will rise sharply, otherwise, it will experience huge fluctuations. Bessent expects the Supreme Court to support Trump's tariffs but is also considering alternative plans [1] - Industry News: Freeport's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik plant in early September. Hudbay Minerals has resumed the operation of its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba. The drainage of the eastern section of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine, the largest copper producer in Africa, will enable the mine to resume production capacity early next year. Chile's copper production in July was 445,214 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 5% and a limited year - on - year increase. Chile's economic activity growth rate in July slowed down year - on - year due to the decline of the key mining industry [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive view on the copper price trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]