化工日报：下游轮胎采购依然谨慎-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue. Domestic Qingdao Port and social inventories show a slight decline. With the upcoming traditional peak season for downstream industries, attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories [7] - In September, some BR production facilities have maintenance plans, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly. BR inventory is expected to remain stable, and the cost - side support still exists [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,820 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [2] - From January to July 2025, Thailand exported 1.586 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a 5% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 622,000 tons, a 7% year - on - year increase [2] - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a 2.47% month - on - month increase and a 1.91% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.6005 million tons, a 21.82% year - on - year increase [2] - From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase year - on - year. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 5.63 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. Automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, a 4.9% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a 4.9% year - on - year increase [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 2, 2025, the RU basis was - 870 yuan/ton (+40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 990 yuan/ton (-50), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,269 yuan/ton (+15.32), the NR basis was 390 yuan/ton (+15), etc. [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 baht/kg (unchanged), Thai latex was 55.60 baht/kg (+0.15), Thai cup lump was 51.20 baht/kg (+0.15), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 baht/kg (unchanged) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.97% (-0.90%) [5] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,270,809 tons (-14,554), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (+170), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (+805) [6] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 2, 2025, the BR basis was - 70 yuan/ton (+75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. [6] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [6] - Inventories: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 6,620 tons (-790), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 25,100 tons (+1,900) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories in the peak season [7] - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The supply - demand situation may improve slightly, inventory may remain stable, and cost - side support still exists [7]