燃料油日报：燃料油供应扰动因素仍存，关注俄乌局势发展-20250903

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical and macro - situation remains unclear, especially the limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Crude oil is in a range - bound oscillation with no clear direction, and the FU and LU fuel oil futures also show narrow - range fluctuations [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and re - balancing, with both long and short factors intertwined and no obvious contradictions [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure, with domestic production remaining low. The Western arbitrage supply has tightened again. In the short term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong driving forces. In the medium - term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower end of the valuation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.53% at 2,847 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.54% at 3,559 yuan/ton [1]. - The short - term situation of crude oil is uncertain. The outcome of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and changes in US sanctions policies need to be monitored. Russia's fuel oil production and exports may be affected by sanctions and refinery shutdowns caused by drone attacks in Ukraine [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: No specific strategies are provided [2].