Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure and may struggle to keep up [3] - Inter - term: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to PDH device maintenance on the supply side and rigid downstream demand, the spot price of propylene continues to be strong, but the futures market shows a volatile trend. The 01 contract is far away, so the impact of supply - demand drivers is weak. The price of propylene is supported by the tightening of external supply in the short term and the overall downstream demand has slightly recovered, but the overall profit of downstream products is average, and the increase in propylene spot price compresses downstream profits, which restricts the upward space of propylene. The cost of crude oil is rising, and the price of imported propane has rebounded [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant data involve the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refinery [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of downstream products such as PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is provided [66]
丙烯日报:丙烯下游高价采购意愿减弱-20250903
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-03 06:33