新能源及有色金属日报：电解铝宏观微观共振向上-20250903

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the spot discount is slightly repaired. The social inventory is expected to decline, and the macro - situation is favorable [6]. - The alumina price is neutrally treated due to factors such as ore - end disturbances, winter storage expectations, and the Guinea election event. The supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [7]. - The production profit of aluminum alloy is significantly repaired, indicating actual consumption recovery. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 160 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 75 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 2, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,720 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,755 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,466 lots, and the position was 213,947 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 2, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 623,000 tons, a change of 0.3 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 58,654 tons, a change of 125 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, a change of - 1,450 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On September 2, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,165 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,135 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 2, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,015 yuan/ton, closed at 3,022 yuan/ton, a change of 13 yuan/ton (0.43%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,046 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,994 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 310,480 lots, and the position was 242,297 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 2, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil - use scrap aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical scrap aluminum was 15,900 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 54,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply side remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the spot discount is slightly repaired. The downstream processing enterprises' production and operating rates are increasing, showing signs of a transition from the off - season to the peak season. The social inventory accumulation has slowed down, and de - stocking is expected. The macro - situation is favorable, and overseas consumption remains strong [6]. Alumina - In Guangxi, 5,000 tons of alumina were traded at a spot - cash price of 3,180 yuan/ton. The rainy season affects the import of Guinea ore and domestic ore mining. The alumina price lacks the driving force to fall further due to potential cost increases. The supply - demand balance remains slightly in surplus, and inventories are increasing. The alumina price is neutrally treated [6][7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the production profit is significantly repaired, and the price difference between the spot price and aluminum ingots shows a seasonal repair trend, indicating actual consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the AD2511 - AL2511 contract [7]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [8]