能源化策略报：地缘对原油价格略有?撑，化?投产时间不确定加?投资难度

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual product outlooks are given, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. These ratings are based on the expected price movements of the products within the next 2 - 12 weeks, with different definitions for each rating in terms of standard deviations [272]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil has shown a slightly stronger trend recently. Concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have boosted oil prices, but the overall market is still under supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain the current production policy at the upcoming meeting. Oil prices are likely to oscillate to digest the supply disturbances caused by the Ukraine attacks [1]. - The chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. There is no dominant market logic, and futures prices fluctuate with raw materials and market sentiment. The uncertainty of the commissioning time of chemical plants, especially ethylene glycol plants, increases the difficulty of investment. If the chemical industry rebounds following crude oil, investors can gradually short products with severe over - capacity, such as olefins [2]. - Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address the over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - Main Logic: Tensions between the US and Venezuela and Trump's changing attitude towards Russia support geopolitical premiums and increase oil price volatility. However, the supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience makes it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply expectation. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to a significant increase in the geopolitical premium of asphalt. - Main Logic: The market has refocused on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+增产, but the recent escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to expectations of a supply cut in asphalt raw materials, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly. - Main Logic: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela have enhanced the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase is limited by the increase in warehouse receipts. The import tariff of fuel oil in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has changed. The three main drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a weakening trend. Geopolitical upgrades are expected to have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the increase in crude oil prices. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil has oscillated and declined following crude oil. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations while maintaining a low valuation [10]. Methanol - Viewpoint: There is still an expectation of shutdown in the far - month contract, and the methanol futures price has rebounded. - Main Logic: On September 2, the methanol futures price oscillated. The far - month shutdown expectation has caused the futures price to decline first and then rebound significantly. The fundamentals of downstream olefins provide limited support. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for going long in the far - month can be considered [19]. Urea - Viewpoint: The release of the Indian tender has been postponed, and the market is generally waiting and watching. It is expected to strengthen soon. - Main Logic: As of September 2, information on the Indian tender and export policies has not been finalized, and the market is waiting and watching. The futures price has rebounded slightly, and the spot prices in different regions have diverged. The supply is expected to decrease, and the autumn demand is expected to pick up. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender price and subsequent export progress [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: The news of commissioning has stimulated the futures market to weaken. - Main Logic: The narrow fluctuations of coal and oil prices provide limited cost guidance. The news of the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene and downstream products has had a negative impact on the market, increasing supply pressure. Although the supply - demand structure shows some signs of weakening, the market is still in the de - stocking cycle, which provides some support [14][15][16]. PX - Viewpoint: Cost and sentiment fluctuations are still the main driving forces. - Main Logic: The commodity sentiment is poor, and PX has continued to decline. The upstream load has remained stable, but the commissioning of aromatic hydrocarbon plants has increased supply pressure. The downstream PTA plants are operating at a low level, and polyester demand is fair. PX is expected to maintain a tight balance, and its price is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment [11]. PTA - Viewpoint: It is oscillating to find support, and cost and sentiment dominate the direction. - Main Logic: The Russia - Ukraine issue has stalled, and the crude oil market has been in a stalemate, providing limited guidance. After the hype of upstream plants subsided, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the spot basis weakened. The downstream polyester sales and production have limited improvement, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. It is expected to seek support downward in the short term, with a limited overall decline [11]. Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the quality of demand still needs to be verified. - Main Logic: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the absolute price of short - fiber has declined accordingly. The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, the downstream sales and production are mediocre, and the terminal's procurement behavior is cautious. The quality of the peak season still needs to be verified. The absolute value of short - fiber will fluctuate with raw materials and oscillate in the short term [16]. Bottle Chip - Viewpoint: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. - Main Logic: The upstream cost is still seeking support, and the price of polyester bottle chips is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall order intake has declined in the off - season. The processing margin has no obvious expansion driver and will maintain an oscillating consolidation [17][18]. PP - Viewpoint: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. - Main Logic: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity through plant maintenance has limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. The demand has a peak - off - season switch, and the pipe - making industry's start - up rate has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [22]. Propylene (PL) - Viewpoint: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - Main Logic: On September 2, PL oscillated. Propylene enterprises' inventories are at a low level, and they are mainly pushing up prices. Downstream factories purchase on demand. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the polypropylene processing fee is the key focus on the market [23]. Plastic - Viewpoint: The performance of peak - season demand is the short - term focus, and plastic is oscillating. - Main Logic: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity and the elimination of South Korean petrochemical capacity have limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. There is still a capital game in the macro - environment, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation still exists. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, with high production and inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate and purchasing willingness [21]. Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - Main Logic: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the market expects a tightening supply due to planned maintenance in the Middle East and reduced exports from Russian refineries. However, the increase in imported pure benzene at the port and the return of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry have led to a decline in the price of pure benzene. The demand verification is crucial as the peak season approaches, but the orders of downstream products have not improved significantly [13]. Styrene - Viewpoint: The inventory pressure is prominent, and styrene continues to decline. - Main Logic: The decline of styrene is mainly due to the cooling of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry and the black commodity sentiment. Its fundamentals are poor, and it is significantly weaker than other chemical products. The explicit and implicit inventories are high, and the cost support is insufficient. The peak - season demand has not materialized, and the downstream demand is weak. There is some support at the valuation level of 7000 - 7100, but there is no positive driver for a rebound [14][15][16]. PVC - Viewpoint: Weak market conditions are suppressing PVC, and it is operating weakly. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with a decline in cost. The production is expected to decline in September due to autumn maintenance, the downstream start - up rate has not changed much, the export expectation is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The market sentiment is poor, and the inventory is increasing, so the market is expected to operate weakly [25]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and the market is on hold for now. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand for replenishment, improved non - aluminum start - up rates, increased export orders, and a slight decline in production due to maintenance. The spot price has reached a temporary peak, and the market is expected to oscillate due to the expectation of alumina production in the far - month [26].