Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Core View of the Report - In September, there are relatively large disturbances on the supply side, such as a decrease in the circulation of scrap copper and a concentrated maintenance period for smelters. Although downstream consumption is not outstanding, grid demand provides support. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On September 2, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,640 yuan/ton and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, a -0.15% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 79,500 yuan/ton and closed at 80,410 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was quoted at a premium of 110 - 330 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, with an average premium of 220 yuan/ton, a 15-yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 80,010 - 80,310 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers had low acceptance of high prices, and the purchasing sentiment weakened. The premium of flat copper decreased to 130 - 160 yuan/ton, while the supply of high-quality copper was tight, and the premium was firm [2]. Important Information Summaries - Tariffs: US President Trump said he would appeal the global tariff case ruling to the US Supreme Court and reiterated that his introduction of global tariffs was due to the US being in an "economic emergency" [3]. - Economic Data: The US August ISM manufacturing index slightly rose from 48 in July to 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49, and below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index rose to 51.4, expanding for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index dropped 3.6 points to 47.8, falling back into the contraction range. The Eurozone's August CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with an expected 2%. The core CPI slightly declined to 2.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The service price increase slowed to 3.1%. European Central Bank hawkish executive Schnabel said the ECB should suspend interest rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [3]. Mine End - Production Reduction: Capstone Copper's Mantoverde sulfide mine in Chile will temporarily reduce production due to the failure of two ball mill drive motors within a week. The company expects the repair work to take about four weeks, resulting in a copper concentrate production loss of 3,000 - 4,000 tons [4]. - Mine Expansion: The government of British Columbia has approved Imperial Metals' plan to deepen and expand the Springer pit of the Mount Polley copper-gold mine, which will extend the mine's service life by about 8 years. The mine produced 35.7 million pounds (about 16,200 tons) of copper and 39,108 ounces (about 1,210 tons) of gold in 2024. Exploration drilling is ongoing, and new ore sections have been discovered [4]. Smelting and Import - Production: From January to August 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached 893,900 tons, a 12.3% year-on-year increase. In August, the output was 117,150 tons, a 0.24% month-on-month decrease. Due to a significant decline in the supply of scrap anode plates and the upcoming concentrated maintenance period for smelters, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline significantly in September and may continue until October [5]. - Scrap: Affected by relevant policies and high previous smelting demand, the marketable scrap after September will significantly decrease [5]. - Import: The trading activity of US dollar copper in the domestic market has further increased this week. The arbitrage window formed by the price difference between BC copper and LME has been continuously open since mid-August, boosting the demand for bonded warehouse receipts. The domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decrease, and imports have not increased significantly. Sellers are reluctant to sell, and the Yangshan copper premium is expected to continue to strengthen [5]. Consumption - Copper Rod: Last week, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 68.12%, a 3.25-percentage-point decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 32,700 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 68,000 tons. With the alleviation of capital pressure and the arrival of some September orders next week, demand is expected to recover. The substitution effect of refined copper rods may be enhanced due to the tightening supply of scrap copper [6]. - Wire and Cable: At the beginning of the week, the high copper price inhibited order release. Most enterprises focused on completing existing orders, and only a few purchased in advance due to bullish expectations. The State Grid's demand provides support, while other industries are still in the off-season [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME Warehouse Receipts: Decreased by 25.00 tons to 158,775 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. - SHFE Warehouse Receipts: Decreased by 699 tons to 19,501 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. - Domestic Spot Inventory: On September 2, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,100 tons, a 5,000-ton increase from the previous week [6].
部分好铜货源相对紧缺,铜价震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-03 07:00