中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数上涨，贵金属普遍上涨-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - Domestic Macro: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - Asset Views: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - Financial: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - Shipping: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - Black Building Materials: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - Agriculture: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].