Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy: Soybean No. 1 (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Egg (★★★) - Sell: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Live Pig (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The market for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different commodities facing various supply - demand situations and policy impacts. Short - term price movements are affected by factors such as inventory changes, seasonal harvests, and trade policies, while long - term trends are influenced by global supply - demand fundamentals and biofuel development [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The short - term price of the domestic soybean main contract continues to rebound due to short - covering. The auction turnover rate has increased, and market marginal supply has risen. The growth of domestic soybeans is good, and new beans will be listed in late September [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The bull market for domestic soybean meal needs to wait due to Sino - US trade uncertainties. The external market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak situation. Domestic soybean meal's decline is limited by import costs. The supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade issues remain unresolved. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil shows a rebound trend after a short - term price correction. Soybean oil prices are still weak. The price of US soybeans is under pressure but also has support. The near - term supply of domestic soybeans is abundant, while the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. Considering the long - term development of biofuels, it is advisable to buy soybean and palm oil at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed products market shows a narrow - range fluctuation. The global rapeseed supply will be in a stage of relaxation, and the domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The rapeseed futures may stabilize in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continue to rebound due to feed enterprises' inventory replenishment. The new - season corn is expected to be relatively abundant. After the enthusiasm for new - grain acquisition fades, the futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pig - The spot price of live pigs shows a pattern of strong in the south and weak in the north. The futures price continues to be weak. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in September, but demand may be supported by festivals. The pig price is under downward pressure [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The elimination of old hens has accelerated, and the number of newly - laid hens is expected to decline. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's H1 [9]
国投期货农产品日报-20250903
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-03 07:14