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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Insights of the Report - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle. Powell's dovish stance at the global central bank meeting paves the way for a September rate cut, making the path of overseas inflation more straightforward [2]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. Commodity price volatility may remain high [2]. - With the continuous increase in risk aversion and rate - cut expectations, the prices of gold and silver have reached record highs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected [1]. - The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, and the government plans to expand service consumption and investment. China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, and non - manufacturing accelerated its expansion [1]. - On September 2, A - shares fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices closing down. The basis of IC and IM futures of stock indices has widened, and subsequent basis changes and risks should be monitored [1]. - In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, with the contraction rate of manufacturing activities slightly slowing down. The "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption, and attention should be paid to the further transmission and verification of overseas inflation [1]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's dovish speech at the global central bank meeting on August 22 increased the downward risk of employment, which may lead to a policy adjustment. He also abandoned the 2020 flexible average inflation target framework [2]. - The New York Fed President Williams believes that if the neutral interest rate is 1% or slightly lower, the current situation is in a restrictive area. Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, and the Fed stated that the removal needs "just cause" [2]. - The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that officials considered inflation risks to be "generally balanced." The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, slightly higher than the previous month, supporting the ECB to maintain the status quo [2]. Commodity Market - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products [2]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the government will regulate the photovoltaic industry [2]. - In the medium - term, the supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention [2]. - Agricultural products are currently driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, but they still need fundamental signals and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations [2]. Key News - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 30 billion yuan, a net PSL withdrawal of 16.08 billion yuan, and a net injection of 30 billion yuan through repurchase agreements [4]. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War will be held on September 3, with the parade lasting about 70 minutes [4]. - The overall market fluctuated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85% [4]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, with new orders and other sub - indices showing different trends [4]. - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, and the core CPI also showed certain changes [4]. - The yield of UK long - term government bonds reached the highest level since 1998, putting pressure on the government. US stocks before the market opened saw a decline in European and US stocks, a surge in long - term bond yields, and a rise in gold prices [4].