国投期货综合晨报-20250903

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple industries and commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies for each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. In the third quarter, the oil market supply - demand was balanced. Considering OPEC+ output increase in September and post - peak demand decline, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Look for shorting opportunities when SC11 rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Singapore and Chinese ship - fuel sales declined year - on - year, but domestic refinery production was also low. Due to geopolitical premium and delayed supply pressure, LU rebounded and FU strengthened [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: After the gas off - season, it shows some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and domestic demand, the civil gas price increased. The high - basis difference pattern persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [24] - Asphalt: In the traditional peak season, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23] Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Maintain a long position and focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday [3] - Copper: Overnight, copper prices broke through integer thresholds. In the short - to - medium term, it is affected by the Fed rate cut, domestic refined copper consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 has increased seasonally for four weeks. It is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - Alumina: Production capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and supply surplus. It is running weakly, and pay attention to the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6] - Zinc: In September, refinery maintenance may reduce output. In the short term, it rebounds, but in the medium term, maintain a short - allocation strategy [8] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, prices rebounded. Short - term short positions are suspended, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [10] - Tin: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, and short - term long positions can be held based on 271,000 yuan [11] - Manganese Silicon: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. In the long term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [19] - Silicon Iron: Supply is increasing, demand is okay, and inventory is slightly decreasing [20] Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Futures prices declined, and the market was quiet. The overall sentiment is low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [12] - Polysilicon: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. Before new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13] - Industrial Silicon: Futures prices rose slightly. In September, supply surplus will intensify, and there is a risk of a price decline after the current up - trend [14] - Methanol: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating. But with the improvement of downstream device economics, the market is expected to strengthen [26] - Pure Benzene: Oil prices rebounded, and benzene prices stopped falling. In the third quarter, supply - demand may improve [27] - Styrene: Crude oil and pure benzene provide little support. Supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [28] - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Polyethylene demand is okay, while polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29] - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC supply pressure is high, and it may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices are relatively firm but may also oscillate widely [30] - PX and PTA: Prices are oscillating at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited [31] - Ethylene Glycol: Prices fluctuate around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and there are both long and short factors in the medium term [32] Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: There is uncertainty in Sino - US trade. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal [37] - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: Prices rebounded. In the long term, consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to volatility risks [38] - Corn: Dalian corn futures were weak at night. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may continue to run weakly at the bottom [40] - Pigs: Spot prices are mixed, and futures prices are weak. There is downward pressure on prices under large supply [41] - Eggs: Spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [42] - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate. Consider buying on dips [43] - Sugar: US sugar prices are trending down, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - Apples: Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, prices may rise, but in the long term, there is limited upside [45] - Timber: Futures prices are oscillating. Supply may remain low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [46] - Paper Pulp: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see or range - trading approach is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Route): MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. Spot prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [21] - Stock Index: The market is adjusting, and there is short - term macro uncertainty. Increase allocation to technology - growth sectors [48] - Treasury Bonds: Futures prices oscillated flat. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [49]