贵金属日报：特朗普将就关税提起上诉，美经济数据趋弱-20250903

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: On hold 2) Core View of the Report - Gold prices have hit a new all-time high, with the main logic based on easing expectations and the risk premium due to threats to the Fed's independence. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be in a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 785 yuan/gram and 835 yuan/gram [8]. - In the current macro - environment, the silver price can benefit from both its financial attributes similar to gold and its industrial attributes in the interest - rate cut cycle, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. However, the silver price is also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9700 yuan/kg and 10200 yuan/kg [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Tariffs: US President Trump will appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case, claiming that the US was in an economic emergency when the tariffs were introduced [1]. - US economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49, and remained below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range [1]. - Eurozone inflation: The Eurozone CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI fell slightly to 2.3%. An ECB hawkish official said the ECB should pause rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - Shanghai Gold: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai gold主力 contract opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 804.32 yuan/gram, up 0.47% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 813.00 yuan/gram, up 1.08% from the afternoon close [2]. - Shanghai Silver: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai silver主力 contract opened at 9775.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9824.00 yuan/kg, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 547,942 lots, and the open interest was 282,718 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9766 yuan/kg and closed at 9836 yuan/kg, up 0.12% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 2, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.261%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.62%, down 0.22 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - Gold: On the Au2508 contract, the number of long and short positions did not change compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 319,990 lots, down 35.47% from the previous trading day [4]. - Silver: On the Ag2508 contract, the number of long positions increased by 2, and the number of short positions decreased by 2. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 968,060 lots, down 36.18% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - Gold ETF holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons compared to the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15,366.48 tons compared to the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - Spot - futures spread: On September 2, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 20.32 yuan/gram, and for silver was - 1028.51 yuan/kg. - Gold - silver ratio: The ratio of the prices of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.87, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, up 0.65% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 2, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,864 kg, down 19.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 444,734 kg, down 31.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,490 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].