新能源及有色金属日报：多晶硅现货报价继续上调，关注价格向下游传导情况-20250903

Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon in the strategy [5][7] - Inter-temporal: None [5][7][8] - Inter-commodity: None [5][7][8] - Spot-futures: None [5][7][8] - Options: None [5][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but there are issues of overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly in September. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 2, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,480 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 1.13% (95 yuan/ton) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,480 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,029 lots, down 371 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1] - The consumption of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable. The price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Silicone enterprises face increased cost pressure, and the peak-season restocking of end consumers is average [1] Polysilicon - On September 2, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 oscillated strongly, opening at 52,360 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, up 3.97% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 145,855 lots (150,409 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 530,778 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N-type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and N-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon producers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a month-on-month decrease of 14.29%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a month-on-month increase of 3.68%). The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.53%), and the silicon wafer production was 13.31GW (a month-on-month increase of 8.30%) [4] - In September, most domestic silicon wafer enterprises increased their production scheduling plans, and the overall output showed an upward trend compared to August [4] - In September, the global battery production scheduling was about 60GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 59GW in August), and the domestic production scheduling was about 59GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 58GW in August) [6] - The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price fluctuates slightly. The short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but due to overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon - In September, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management, continuously follow up on policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7]