华泰期货油料日报-20250903

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The sales pressure in the soybean spot market is gradually increasing, with some traders' price - holding mentality weakening, and soybean quotes in Northeast China moderately decreasing. The market conditions in other main producing areas remain stable overall, and attention should be paid to the impact of new soybean production, quality, and terminal procurement dynamics on prices. For peanuts, the inventory in the circulation link is continuously low, some traders are replenishing at low prices, and the market is concerned about the stocking demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the new peanut listing progress [2][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +5.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.13% [1] Spot - The basis of edible soybean spot is A11 + 250, a change of - 5 from the previous day, with a change rate of 32.14%. The soybean market prices in Northeast China are stable with a slight decline, and the prices of low - protein sources are under pressure from state - reserve auctions. Some areas are expected to have new grain on the market around September 20 [1] Specific Quotes - In Heilongjiang Harbin, the loading price of standard - grade No. 1 medium - sized tower grain with 39% protein is 2.11 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Heilongjiang Shuangyashan Baoqing, it is 2.10 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; in Heilongjiang Jiamusi Fujin, it is 2.07 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin; in Heilongjiang Qiqihar Nehe, the loading price of standard - grade No. 1 medium - sized tower grain with 41% protein is 2.22 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Heilongjiang Heihe Nenjiang, it is 2.19 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Heilongjiang Suihua Hailun, it is 2.20 yuan/jin, unchanged [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures - The closing price of the peanuts 2510 contract yesterday was 7790.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.51% [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts is 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.12%. The spot basis is PK10 + 310.00, a change of +40.00 from the previous day, with a change rate of +14.81%. The average price of common peanuts in the national peanut market is 4.23 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. The prices of new - season Baisha common peanuts in Henan are around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the prices for 8 - sieve peanuts are 4.9 - 5 yuan/jin. The prices of old peanuts in the Northeast are stable with a slight decline, and the sales are slow. The delivery of peanut fruits in some producing areas is basically finished, the current operating rate of oil mills is low, and the demand for pressing is small [3] Oil Mill Quotes - A Shandong oil mill's contract price for common peanuts is 8350 yuan/ton, and the procurement contract price for oil - used peanuts is 7700 - 7800 yuan/ton. A Henan oil mill's procurement contract price for oil - used peanuts is about 7300 yuan/ton [3]