下游恢复不及预期，PTA基差偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and suggests paying attention to the situation of Shenghong's PX plant [4]. Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue has stalled or regressed, causing oil prices to decline slightly in fluctuations. The crude oil market remains in a multi - short stalemate. Naphtha has shown strength recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery. The profitability of downstream olefins is guaranteed at the bottom as the peak season approaches [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN was 252 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0.13 dollars/ton). After the restart of Idemitsu's and Fuhai Chuang's plants, the PX operating rate at home and abroad is expected to rise. Although the PX fundamentals have weakened and the floating price of near - month PX has softened, the low inventory provides support to PXN [1]. - For PTA, the spot basis of the main contract was - 49 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton), the spot processing fee was 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market was 348 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the less - than - expected maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant, the de - stocking amplitude of the PTA balance sheet in September will narrow. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester operating rate may not increase as expected [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.3% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3%). There are signs of demand recovery, but the order connection this week is insufficient. The weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester operating rate is expected to remain stable and continue to rise in the short term [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 19 yuan/ton). The operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber has increased, the downstream situation has improved, and inventory is being depleted. However, there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment due to falling raw material prices [2]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 377 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The industry plans to maintain a 20% production cut in September, and the increase in the operating rate is expected to be limited. The inventory pressure has decreased, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA's East China spot basis; and the basis of 1.56D * 38mm semi - bright natural white staple fiber [9][10][12]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene spread between the US and Asia, the spread between South Korea's FOB toluene and Japan's CFR naphtha, and PTA export profit [26][28]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It displays the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts plus forecasts, PTA warehouse inventory, PX warehouse inventory, and PF warehouse inventory [37][40][41]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of filament DTY, FDY, and POY factories, the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][60]. 7. PF Detailed Data - It includes the operating rate of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rate of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled 1.4D polyester staple fibers, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, the production profit of pure polyester yarn, the processing fee of polyester - cotton yarn, and the available inventory days of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][80][84]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of bottle chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle chips, the export profit of bottle chips, the spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and the monthly spreads of bottle chips [90][92][94].