化工日报：新装置或提前开车，EG偏弱运行-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) declined. The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China showed a downward trend. According to CCF data, it was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]. - On the supply side, domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly. The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with few contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton. The domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September [2][3] III. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - The current demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [3] V. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]