日度策略参考-20250903

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Overall, the market is generally favorable. For short - term long positions, it is advisable to tilt towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [1]. - Bullish on gold, silver, and alumina [1]. - Bearish on black metals, iron ore, and soda ash [1]. - Neutral or with a fluctuating outlook for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. [1]. Core Viewpoints - The current market has abundant liquidity, strongly supporting stock indices. Asset shortage and weak economic conditions are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts upward movement [1]. - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors impact various commodity prices. For example, they boost gold prices and influence the supply - demand and price trends of metals and energy commodities [1]. - Seasonal factors, production capacity changes, and inventory levels are important factors affecting the prices of various commodities, such as the influence of seasonal maintenance on tin prices and the impact of inventory accumulation on zinc and steel prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock indices: Overall favorable. Short - term long positions can be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce risks [1]. - Treasury bonds: Fluctuating [1]. - Gold: Bullish, driven by safe - haven demand and interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1]. Metals - Aluminum: Fluctuating. Domestic downstream demand is under pressure during the off - season, but Fed's interest - rate cut expectations support prices [1]. - Alumina: Bullish. Despite increased production and inventory, there are opportunities for long positions in distant months [1]. - Zinc: Fluctuating. Although social inventory is increasing, LME inventory is decreasing, and macro sentiment provides support [1]. - Nickel: Fluctuating in the short - term, following macro trends. Long - term, there is pressure from excess primary nickel supply [1]. - Stainless steel: Fluctuating. Raw material prices are rising, social inventory is stable, and profits are being repaired, but operations should be short - term [1]. - Tin: Fluctuating strongly in the short - term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro sentiment [1]. - Iron ore: Bearish in the short - term. Supply is recovering, demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Black metals: Bearish. Supply exceeds demand, and inventory is high [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Fluctuating, affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ decisions, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Fuel oil: Fluctuating, with similar influencing factors as crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Fluctuating, following crude oil in the short - term [1]. - PTA: Fluctuating. Production is recovering, inventory is being reduced, and profits are being repaired, but some downstream devices may be shut down [1]. - Ethylene and related products: Bearish. There are rumors of industry reforms and production cuts, and market sentiment is weakening [1]. - Urea: Fluctuating. Export sentiment is slowing, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from cost and anti - involution [1]. - PP: Fluctuating weakly. Maintenance support is limited, and demand is mainly for essential needs [1]. - PVC: Fluctuating weakly. Supply pressure is increasing, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Soda ash: Bullish in the future. The spot market is entering the peak season, inventory is low, and there will be more alumina production [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Fluctuating. Although there is a bullish expectation in the fourth quarter, it has corrected significantly in the short - term [1]. - Rapeseed oil: It is advisable to wait and see, affected by the price decline of ICE rapeseed and future anti - dumping measures and procurement progress [1]. - Cotton: Fluctuating in the short - term. Spot basis is strong before new cotton is on the market, but new - year production is expected to increase [1]. - Sugar: Fluctuating narrowly. Supply is becoming looser, and significant price increases are under pressure [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - term. Old - crop supply is tight, but new - crop is expected to be abundant, and planting costs are decreasing [1]. - Soybean meal: Fluctuating. Pay attention to the impact of precipitation on US soybean yields, and there is support from import costs [1]. - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spreads. The outer - market quotation has increased, and warehouse receipts are decreasing [1]. - Logs: Fluctuating between 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [1].