Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: RU is neutral - biased long, NR is neutral. As of August 29, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened. RU's recent frequent rainfall in production areas hindered tapping, leading to tight raw material supply and strong glue prices, with a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR was affected by typhoons in Vietnam, with slow supply increase in overseas main production areas, stronger Thai cup - lump prices, and a slight reduction in dark - colored rubber inventory. However, tire开工率 declined, semi - steel tire inventory digestion was slow, and tire exports over - drafted subsequent demand, and domestic demand awaited verification during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. It is judged that RU prices will fluctuate widely this week, and NR prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [4]. - Medium - to long - term: RU is neutral - biased short, NR is neutral - biased short. The factors affecting long - term trends are similar to short - term ones, mainly considering the supply - demand relationship in the tire market and the impact of weather on rubber production [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Prices: As of August 29, Thai cup - lump price was 50.5 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht/kg from last week; Thai glue price was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht/kg from last week. Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. International prices: Thai standard price was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Indian standard price was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week; Thai mixed price was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Malaysian mixed price was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [21][71][82]. - Spreads: As of August 29, the RU - NR spread was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and it is expected to continue widening. The Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 409.7 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 454.65 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan/ton from last week. The RU09 - 01 spread was - 975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [4][94][109]. Supply - related - Production Areas Weather: During the period from August 26 to September 2, Vietnam was affected by typhoons "Jianyu" and "Lanhu". The estimated rubber production loss due to heavy rainfall was about 0.29 - 0.48 tons, which will be released after the weather improves. Yunnan's rainfall gradually subsided, while Hainan was more significantly affected by typhoon "Lanhu", with expected increased rainfall that would hinder tapping [10][31]. - Thai Supply: Thai weather was normal, raw material prices increased marginally, and production was stable. The Thai Rubber Authority (RAOT) launched a plan to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, aiming to increase prices. The first batch of 400 tons of cup - shaped rubber will be shipped in September this year, and commercial shipments are planned to start in October 2025, with production increasing to 2,400 tons [4][21]. - Ivory Coast Exports: In July 2025, Ivory Coast exported 2.85 tons of natural rubber to China, a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29% and a year - on - year increase of 92.59%. From January to July 2025, Ivory Coast's total exports of natural rubber to China were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 9.61 tons compared to the same period, with a total year - on - year increase of 52.73% [26]. Demand - related - Tire Industry: As of August 29, the semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, a decrease of 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66%. Due to anti - dumping measures in the EU, there was a rush to export, over - drafting subsequent orders, and downstream tire factories were pessimistic, making short - term inventory digestion difficult. As of August 28, the whole - steel tire开工率 was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. In July 2025, the export volume of Chinese whole - steel tires was 45.44 tons, a decrease of 4.72 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. Enterprises' exports remained active, domestic sales were stable, and it is expected that the开工率 will improve in September [55][61]. - Inventory: As of August 24, the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of August 29, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 60.23 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 7.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 52.91 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory in Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the next period [4][48][94].
天然橡胶：短期有撑上行存疑
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-09-03 07:17