新能源及有色金属日报：宏观因素推动锌价上涨-20250903

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both single - side trading and arbitrage is neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - Macro factors and continuous decline in overseas inventories support the rise of zinc prices, but the consumer side struggles to keep up, with cold spot transactions and difficult - to - repair spot discounts. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with high supply pressure. However, overseas factors provide favorable support, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is $14.98 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On September 2, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton and closed at 22,325 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,688 lots, and the open interest was 107,662 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,380 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,165 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of September 2, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 146,300 tons, a change of 1,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 55,600 tons, a change of - 275 tons from the previous trading day [4] 2. Market Analysis - Macro factors and continuous decline in overseas inventories support zinc price increases, but the consumer side is weak. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with high supply pressure as the zinc ingot production in August increased by 28% year - on - year. There is a high probability of inventory accumulation during the consumption peak season. Overseas factors provide favorable support, with a good macro - environment, supply contraction, stable consumption, declining inventories, narrowing discounts, and a risk of a short squeeze. After the decline in the absolute price of zinc ingots, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved [5] 3. Strategy - Both single - side trading and arbitrage strategies are rated as neutral [6]