集运日报：MSC宣布国庆停航计划，盘面昨日大幅反弹，符合日报预期，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250903

Group 1: Report Core View - MSC announced a suspension plan for the National Day holiday, and the market rebounded sharply yesterday, in line with the daily report's expectations. Due to large recent fluctuations, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - Although the latest SCFIS index dropped significantly, the market quickly rose due to the intensification of the Middle - East situation and high bullish sentiment. Then, after some funds left the market, the market slightly declined and then fluctuated. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 2: Shipping Index Data SCFIS and NCFI - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period. On August 29, the NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Group 3: Economic Data Eurozone - In August, the preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), the preliminary composite PMI rose to 51.1 (higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5). In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] US - In August, the preliminary US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (39 - month high, estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (the highest since May 2022, expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [3] Group 4: Market and Trading Information Futures Market - On September 2, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1340.7, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 77,900 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1886 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set. - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, each contract follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [5] Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Events - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. On the night of September 1, there were explosions in multiple areas of Syria, including the western rural area of Daraa Province in the south, most blocks of Aleppo City in the north, and near Jableh City in Latakia Province in the west [6]