Report Information - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][17][22][25][26] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold is expected to break through new highs; silver is expected to reach the previous high [2][4] - Copper prices are rising due to improved market sentiment [2][9] - Zinc is expected to trade in a range [2][12] - Lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][15] - Tin is expected to trade in a range [2][17] - Aluminum is expected to be moderately strong with fluctuations; alumina is expected to trade in a range; attention should be paid to the progress of policy implementation for cast aluminum alloy [2][22] - Nickel's fundamentals suggest narrow - range fluctuations, while news may stimulate market sentiment; stainless - steel prices are expected to move in a narrow range [2][26] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 804.32 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 813.00 with a 1.08% increase [5] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 114,740 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 2,067 [5] - ETF and Inventory: The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 13 to 990.56, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 447 to 40,191 kilograms [5] - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Silver - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9824 with a 0.52% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 9836.00 with a 0.01% increase [5] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 336,732 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 12,097 [5] - ETF and Inventory: The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 56 to 15,366.48, and the Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 8001 to 1,215,228 kilograms [5] - Trend Intensity: Silver trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Base Metals Copper - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,660 with a - 0.15% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 80410 with a 0.94% increase [9] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 16,804 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 579 [9] - Inventory and News: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 699 to 19,501 tons. Free Port's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik plant in early September [9][11] - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [11] Zinc - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22325 with a 0.68% daily increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2833 with a 0.68% increase [12] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 14018, and the LME Zinc trading volume decreased by 5760 [12] - Inventory and News: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 998 to 38955 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 to 55600 tons. Eurozone inflation slightly rebounded in August [12][13] - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][14] Lead - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16850 with a - 0.03% daily decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2007 with a 0.50% increase [15] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2369, and the LME Lead trading volume decreased by 2581 [15] - Inventory and News: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 373 to 56428 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1525 to 258025 tons [15] - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Tin - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,980 with a 0.27% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 274,130 with a - 0.08% decrease [18] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 75,860, and the open interest decreased by 1,036 [18] - Inventory and News: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 48 to 7,263 tons, and the LME Tin inventory increased by 20 to 2,175 tons [18] - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20720, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3022 [22] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55120, and the open interest decreased by 7232 [22] - Inventory and News: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.60 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory was 47.96 million tons [22] - Trend Intensity: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral view [24] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,530, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,960 [26] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 43,115, and the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 34,264 [26] - Industry News: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production [26][28][29] - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral view [31]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250903
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-03 08:09