中辉能化观点-20250903

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East provide support at the bottom, but overall, there is great downward pressure [1][5]. - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - end oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for compression below [1]. - L: Cost support improves, and as the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. Consider going long on dips [1]. - PP: Cost support improves, but supply will still face pressure in the future. Although the peak - season demand is starting, the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upward drive. However, the absolute price is low, so consider short - term long positions on dips [1]. - PVC: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened, and there is a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory. Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro expectations are loose. Consider holding long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [1]. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and market risk appetite has increased. Consider long positions on dips [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices and look for short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, but there are short - term disturbances. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [2]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are loose, but exports are good and there are speculative expectations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2]. - Asphalt: The cracking spread and BU - FU spread are at high levels, with high valuations. Maintain a bearish view [3]. - Glass: Supply is under pressure, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3]. - Soda ash: Supply is expected to remain high, and demand is mostly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.47%, Brent rose 1.45%, and SC rose 1.28% [4]. - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, demand support for oil prices weakens, and OPEC+ production increases put pressure on oil prices. Supply is increasing, and demand in India has decreased. Pay attention to the final outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5][6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the break - even point of new shale - oil drilling at around $60. SC focuses on the range of [490 - 500] [7]. LPG - Market Review: On September 2, the PG main contract closed at 4333 yuan/ton, up 1.58% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [8][9]. - Basic Logic: LPG supply - demand contradictions are not significant, and prices are mainly pegged to the cost - end oil price. As the oil - consumption peak season ends and OPEC is still increasing production, the cost end has room to decline. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4400 - 4500] [11]. L - Market Review: The L01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [14]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improves, and the spot price in North China has stopped falling and stabilized. As the peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some device restarts are planned, and demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider going long on dips. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7350] [16]. PP - Market Review: The PP01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [19]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improves, but supply will face pressure due to device restarts and new capacity releases. Peak - season demand is starting, and inventory has declined from high levels. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose, but the absolute price is low [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term long positions on dips. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 closing price decreased slightly, and the spot price in Changzhou remained flat. The number of warehouse receipts increased [24][25]. - Basic Logic: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened due to the continuous decline of thermal coal prices. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 10 weeks. Production is expected to increase after some enterprises' maintenance ends [25]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support. V focuses on the range of [4800 - 4950] [25]. PX - Market Review: On August 29, the PX spot price increased, and the PX11 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [28]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and device maintenance volumes are high. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high. Macro factors such as the "anti - involution" expectation in the domestic chemical industry, international geopolitical conflicts, and the expected Fed rate cut in September support the short - term bullish trend [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6800 - 6920] [29]. PTA - Market Review: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China decreased, and the TA01 contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis weakened. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [31]. - Basic Logic: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. Supply pressure is expected to increase in the future. Demand is showing signs of recovery, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. Consider long positions on dips due to low processing fees and increased market risk appetite [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions carefully, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4730 - 4790] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China decreased, and the EG01 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [35]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas device changes are not significant. Arrival and import volumes are still low. Demand is improving, but market expectations suggest an increase in arrival volumes in the second half of August, increasing supply - side pressure [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits on long positions at high prices, and look for short - selling opportunities. EG01 focuses on the range of [4330 - 4390] [36]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China decreased, and the 01 contract closed lower. The basis and month - spread showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [37]. - Basic Logic: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Demand is weak overall, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support has weakened. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [38][39]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2400] [40]. Urea - Market Review: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong increased, and the main contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [42]. - Basic Logic: Urea daily production is expected to decline this week but may gradually recover in mid - September. Supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [43]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, there is intense long - short competition, with mainly range - bound fluctuations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2].