瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the hog price will mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure remains as the slaughter volume of the breeding end is gradually increasing, and the corresponding sow inventory in September is at the peak of the previous increase cycle. The fat - lean price difference is widening, providing conditions for later pressure on inventory and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the state has launched a combination of "new purchases for reserves" and "rotational purchases for reserves" to stabilize the market. The slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, but the increase is limited. Overall, the slaughter rhythm is gradually recovering, and the near - term supply pressure suppresses the hog price. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for hogs is 13,550 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 73,596 lots, up 208 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 430 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 15,747 lots, up 102 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The hog price in Zhumadian, Henan is 13,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 13,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main basis for hogs is 350 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, down 10,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,363.73 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 909.88, down 0.67; the monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, down 1,104,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,625 yuan/head, down 2 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding is - 148.41 yuan/head, up 3.39 yuan; the profit from self - breeding and self - raising hogs is 32.24 yuan/head, down 1.71 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of dressed chickens in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 31,660,000 heads, up 1,600,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.41 billion yuan, down 2.035 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On September 3, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 251,730 heads, up 5.13% from the previous day. The hog 2511 contract closed down 0.15% on Wednesday [2].