Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 08:41Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply expectations, with the global supply gap in the 2025/26 season expected to be only 231,000 tons. The domestic sugar market faces import pressure as the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import volume in July reached a ten - year high for the same period. With the upcoming beet sugar harvest in September and a high expected new - season production, sugar prices are likely to be suppressed. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,562 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main contract position was 362,219 lots, up 5,943 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,782 sheets, down 420 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,523 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The in - quota import processing estimated prices for Brazilian and Thai sugar were 4,478 yuan/ton and 4,462 yuan/ton respectively, both down 40 yuan; the out - of - quota (50% tariff) import estimated prices were 5,689 yuan/ton and 5,668 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,990 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, an increase of 0.2347 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar was 8.76%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 6.82%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.4%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted a global supply gap of only 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season. The ICE sugar October contract fell 1.22% on Tuesday, and the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.59% on Wednesday. The production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August, leading to a looser global supply expectation and weaker prices [2].