BOCOM International·2025-09-03 08:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 62.75, indicating a potential upside of 22.9% from the current price of HKD 51.05 [1][10]. Core Insights - NIO's revenue showed a significant recovery in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching approximately RMB 190.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9%. The automotive revenue was about RMB 163 billion, aligning with market expectations [7]. - The company aims to achieve a monthly sales target of approximately 50,000 vehicles by Q4 2025, driven by the launch of new models and improvements in product mix [7]. - The report projects a strong outlook for Q3 2025, with expected deliveries between 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles and revenue between RMB 218 billion to RMB 229 billion, marking a historical high [7]. - The forecast for 2025 sales has been raised from 300,000 to 340,000 vehicles, with revenue expectations adjusted upwards by 17.5% to RMB 99.5 billion, reflecting strong sales expectations for the L90 and ES8 models [7]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the projected revenue is RMB 99,477 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.3% [6][12]. - The net loss for 2025 is estimated at RMB 15,767 million, which is an improvement compared to previous years [6][12]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles is expected to recover, with the report indicating a potential increase in margins due to cost reductions and improved sales performance [7]. Market Performance - NIO's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 46.7%, with a 52-week high of HKD 59.15 and a low of HKD 24.50 [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable marginal improvements and cost reduction effects to meet market expectations [7].