Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space of MO1 is expected to be limited. In the short - term, the trend is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre to a record high of 53.6 bushels per acre but unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks were lowered to 290 million bushels, and the new - crop supply - demand balance sheet is tight. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate rose to 69% this week, at a high level over the years. Although recent rainfall in the production area is low and the temperature is low, the impact on the good - to - excellent rate is expected to be limited. The expected soybean arrival volume in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the soybean supply is expected to be in a stock - building cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7] Demand - High inventories of pigs and poultry support the feed demand. However, policy aims to control pig inventory and weight, which is expected to affect the long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the protein usage. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [8] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; soybean meal inventory has risen, and the inventory level is lower than last year, but it is still expected to be in a stock - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] Market - There is no progress in Sino - US talks, and the Brazilian premium has stabilized and rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of recent low precipitation in the US soybean production area on the yield. The tight supply - demand balance sheet supports the CBOT soybean futures, and the import cost supports the soybean meal price [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250903
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-03 08:39