Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not specified in the given content - Iron ore: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Coke: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Coking coal: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silicomanganese: Bullish, with a driving force for upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Under the negative feedback expectation, the price of steel products is under pressure, and the decline may slow down after continuous adjustment. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The prices of coke and coking coal are affected by policy expectations and have high short - term volatility, and are under short - term pressure. The prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are relatively stable, with good demand and certain support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is mainly in a volatile state. The apparent demand for thread has recovered month - on - month, production has increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils have slightly declined, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and the molten iron production has declined from a high level. The negative feedback expectation has increased. The overall domestic demand is still weak, while exports are expected to remain high [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month, reaching a new high for the year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory is oscillating without pressure to accumulate. The molten iron production is expected to decline significantly in the short term. The macro - positive factors have been partially realized, and the speculative sentiment is expected to remain. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price has fluctuated widely. The first round of price cuts in coking has been partially implemented, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders has declined. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is affected by policy expectations and has high short - term volatility, being under short - term pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has fluctuated widely. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, the spot auction transactions have weakened, and the terminal inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory has increased. The price is affected by policy expectations and has high short - term volatility, being under short - term pressure [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price has been volatile. The molten iron production remains at a high level. The weekly production has continued to increase, and the inventory has not accumulated. The manganese ore price has slightly decreased this week, but the price has limited downside space due to pre - stocking by manufacturers. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has been volatile. The molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. The export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month. The supply has continued to increase significantly, the market demand is good, and the inventory has slightly decreased [7]
黑色金属日报-20250903
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-03 08:50