能源日报-20250903

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (one star represents a bullish bias, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market supply - demand was basically balanced in Q3. With a 1.4% drawdown in crude oil inventory and a 2.6% build - up in refined oil inventory, the overall oil inventory increased slightly by 0.1%. Considering the further increase in OPEC+ production in September and the weakening demand after the peak season, there is growing inventory build - up pressure, and the supply - demand situation provides a bearish signal for oil prices. However, short - term oil prices are relatively resilient, and there is an opportunity to short at high levels when the SC11 contract rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [1]. - High and low - sulfur fuel oils both rose today, with LU having a relatively stronger upward trend. Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year as of the end of July, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. At the same time, domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July. Multiple factors led to the rebound of LU and the strengthening of FU [2]. - As the traditional peak season arrives, asphalt demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens marginally. The 10 - contract is clearly supported at 3500 yuan/ton, but the upside space is limited for now. In the short term, BU is expected to fluctuate strongly. For spread strategies, one can continuously pay attention to going long the crack spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [3]. - The 9 - month CP of LPG remained stable, showing some resilience after the end of the gas off - season. After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure was released, and with strong East Asian chemical demand recently, the international market has good bottom support. Import costs have risen and domestic demand has rebounded, supporting the increase in civil gas prices. Although high warrant levels put pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high - basis situation persists, with the short - term futures market showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply - demand balance in Q3: Crude oil inventory decreased by 1.4%, refined oil inventory increased by 2.6%, and overall oil inventory increased slightly by 0.1% [1]. - Future trends: With increased OPEC+ production in September and weakening demand after the peak season, inventory build - up pressure will increase, and the supply - demand situation is bearish for oil prices [1]. - Investment strategy: Wait for the SC11 contract to rebound above 495 yuan/barrel to short at high levels, and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Market performance: Both high and low - sulfur fuel oils rose, with LU having a stronger upward trend [2]. - Demand situation: Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year as of the end of July, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year [2]. - Supply situation: Domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July [2]. - Factors for price increase: Crude oil rebounded due to geopolitical premiums, the third - batch quota was later than expected, and the supply pressure of LU was postponed [2]. Asphalt - Market situation: As the traditional peak season arrives, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens marginally, with faster inventory drawdown in refinery and social inventories [3]. - Price trend: The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and in the short term, BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - Spread strategy: Continuously pay attention to going long the crack spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [3]. LPG - Market performance: The 9 - month CP remained stable, showing resilience after the end of the gas off - season [4]. - International market: After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure was released, and with strong East Asian chemical demand, the international market has good bottom support [4]. - Domestic market: Import costs have risen, domestic demand has rebounded, and civil gas prices have increased. Although high warrant levels put pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high - basis situation persists, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the short - term futures market [4].