ZBOM(SH:603801) Guotou Securities·2025-09-03 09:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 12.38 CNY, while the current stock price is 10.02 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.899 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 14.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 138 million CNY, down 7.21% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the impact of the real estate market on traditional cabinet sales, while the overseas business showed significant growth [3][10]. - The company is focusing on multi-channel and full-category development, with rapid growth in high-potential categories such as wardrobes and wooden doors, and is accelerating its integrated home business [10]. Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from kitchen cabinets, custom wardrobes, and wooden doors was 711 million CNY, 905 million CNY, and 146 million CNY, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 26.42%, 2.54%, and an increase of 5.13% [2]. - For Q2 2025, the revenue from these segments was 446 million CNY, 484 million CNY, and 82 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.34%, 11.18%, and 12.66% [2]. Channel Performance - The revenue from distribution, bulk, direct sales, and overseas channels in H1 2025 was 768 million CNY, 322 million CNY, 525 million CNY, and 148 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -34.18%, -46.86%, +200.25%, and +70.69% respectively [3]. - The overseas business has shown remarkable growth, particularly in markets like Australia and North America, with a focus on expanding into Africa and Southeast Asia [3][8]. Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 35.97%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.27%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points year-on-year [9][10]. - The company has maintained good cost control, with a period expense ratio of 29.72% in H1 2025, up 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 4.983 billion CNY, 5.312 billion CNY, and 5.672 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 362 million CNY, 391 million CNY, and 422 million CNY [11][12].