Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 09:32Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - General Market Situation: The international rapeseed futures market rebounded technically, while the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets are affected by factors such as import policies, supply and demand, and international trade relations. The market volatility has increased, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: In the international market, the expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply - side pressure, but the reduction in planting area provides support. In the domestic market, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals, the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, and the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed weaken the supply. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: Internationally, concerns about palm oil production and strong export data affect the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil mill operating rates and reduced near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9727 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2521 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5496 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Positions: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 169 yuan/ton, unchanged; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 115 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 6931 lots, down 8304 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 15798 lots, up 11682 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 4487 pieces, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 5041 pieces, down 1000 pieces [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9870 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7896.61 yuan/ton, up 28.48 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The oil - meal ratio was 3.73, up 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 79 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 470 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Profit and Operating Rates: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 733 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 4.85 tons, down 0.05 tons. The coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 tons, up 0.4 tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory was 30.86 tons, down 2 tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, down 1.4 tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.26 tons, down 0.55 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.89 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and Consumption: The monthly output of feed was 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.48%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.47%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 32.19%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.91%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 12.14%, down 0.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 12.15%, down 0.97%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 18.35%, down 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.38%, down 0.12% [2]. Industry News - The ICE rapeseed futures rebounded technically on September 2, with the most actively traded November contract rising 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 630.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The Pro Farmer report predicted that the average yield of US soybeans would reach a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, indicating stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Statistics Canada predicted that the rapeseed production in Canada in 2025 would increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, and China's anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed might affect its exports [2]. - The expansion of protests in Indonesia raised concerns about palm oil production and transportation, while strong export data from Malaysia supported the palm oil market [2].