Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 09:32Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the mainstream funds' positions are bearish. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels. Operationally, short positions should be taken on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,299 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position volume is 1,249,082 lots, up 31,805 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -94,945 lots, down 3,832 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 11 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,360 tons, down 300 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 193 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 81 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 777 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.6302 million tons, down 0.8218 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.2836 million tons, up 122,700 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90%, down 0.27 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2474 million tons, down 5,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.95%, down 0.13 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 796,800 tons, up 7,900 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.8578 million tons, up 32,300 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2]. Industry News - As of the morning of September 2, research shows that 78 coal mines in Shanxi have voluntarily stopped production due to safety and maintenance reasons, involving a production capacity of 94.8 million tons. According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in August was 1.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%; the cumulative wholesale from January to August this year was 8.93 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34% [2]. Key Focus - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]