大类资产配置月报第50期：2025年9月：美联储有望“重启”降息，推升风险资产价格-20250903

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to "restart" interest rate cuts, which will benefit risk asset prices [2][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are showing upward trends, with increases of 6.70% and 22.07% respectively [2] - The NASDAQ index is also expected to rise, supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts [2][42] Group 2 - The report suggests a high allocation to equities, particularly in growth sectors such as technology and AI, due to the favorable market conditions [3][27] - The bond market is expected to see a decrease in yields, particularly in short-term bonds, as the Fed's actions create more room for domestic rate cuts [50][60] - Commodities like gold are recommended for overweight allocation, while oil is suggested for underweight due to ongoing production increases [3][27] Group 3 - The report highlights structural improvements in certain sectors, such as the technology and defense industries, which are expected to benefit from government policies and market demand [28][36] - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to recover due to cyclical trends and increased global investment [41] - Agricultural chemicals are also expected to see a rebound in demand, driven by food security strategies and recent price stabilization [41]