人民币专题跟踪研究（一）：再论人民币本轮升值背后的逻辑

Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - Since August 2025, the RMB has entered a new appreciation cycle against the USD, with the spot exchange rate reaching a high of 7.12 and the midpoint touching the critical level of 7.10[2] - The contribution of the counter-cyclical factor to the RMB midpoint value since August is only 26%, indicating that the appreciation is primarily market-driven rather than policy-driven[9] - The "weak USD" backdrop has led to passive appreciation of the RMB, with the USD index declining by 9.9% since the beginning of the year, and the dollar sentiment index dropping to a historical low of around 35[10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Capital Flows - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased, leading to active appreciation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3800 mark, reaching a nearly ten-year high[14] - Trade net settlement rates have risen from 23.9% in January to 54.8% in July 2025, reflecting strong demand for RMB[18] - Despite foreign capital selling approximately 420 billion RMB in bonds during June and July, the RMB did not depreciate, indicating a strategic shift by foreign investors to remain in the Chinese market[23] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The outflow of funds from the bond market is expected to slow down, as the recent wave of foreign capital reduction in RMB bonds has nearly exhausted the net inflow from the past twelve months[28] - Risks include geopolitical tensions that could accelerate capital outflows from China, and unexpected economic performance in the US that may weaken the RMB[29]