Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 09:37Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices reached a record high during Asian trading hours and then entered a consolidation phase, while silver prices slightly corrected due to long - position profit - taking. The short - term strengthening of the US dollar also put pressure on gold prices, but the downside is expected to be limited [3]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is further consolidated, providing underlying support for non - interest - bearing gold. The release of the US manufacturing PMI data in August slightly boosted the probability of a rate cut, but the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report on Friday for clearer signals on the Fed's rate - cut path [3]. - Trump's actions and the potential Supreme Court ruling on the tariff policy inject new uncertainties into the market, which may bring additional support to precious metals with safe - haven attributes [3]. - Technically, both gold and silver have entered the overbought zone, and there may be a short - term adjustment need. Investors are advised to wait for a pullback before lightly entering the market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 814.88 yuan/gram, up 10.56 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9820 yuan/kilogram, down 4 yuan [3]. - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 142,330 lots, up 3,706 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 270,592 lots, down 12,126 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 178,319 lots, up 2,015 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 130,335 lots, up 3,714 lots [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 40,251 kilograms, up 60 kilograms; that of silver was 1,227,039 kilograms, up 11,811 kilograms [3]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 809.48 yuan/gram, up 7.48 yuan; the silver spot price was 9,816 yuan/kilogram, down 5 yuan [3]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.4 yuan/gram, down 3.08 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 4 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings were 990.56 tons, up 12.88 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,366.48 tons, up 56.48 tons [3]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 214,311 contracts, up 1,721 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 46,466 contracts, down 83 contracts [3]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.45%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.69%, up 0.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.76%, and that of at - the - money put options was 22.76% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump will appeal the global tariff case ruling to the US Supreme Court and reiterates that the global tariff was launched due to the US economic emergency [3]. - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan said that based on the economic and price improvement, continuing to raise interest rates is a suitable policy choice [3]. - The US August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly but was still below the market expectation and the boom - bust line. The new orders index expanded, but the output index contracted [3]. - The Eurozone's August CPI rose 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI slightly declined. The service price increase slowed down [3]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 9.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 90.5% [3].