Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 09:37Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint On Wednesday, the I2601 contract rose and then consolidated. Macroscopically, the market's attention has shifted to the US non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Weak employment data this week may reignite discussions about a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore both increased this period, while domestic port inventories declined. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production of steel mills decreased slightly, but the daily molten iron output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the spot market is firm, traders' enthusiasm for shipping is fair, buyers' inquiry sentiment is average, and the game between long and short positions is intense. The short - term market may still fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels to near the 0 axis. The operation suggestion is short - term trading, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the position volume was 465,930 lots, up 12,928 lots. - The price difference between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 22.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 15,259 lots, down 2,867 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,900.00 lots, unchanged. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.1 US dollars/ton, up 0.65 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 842 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 826 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 730 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 49 yuan, unchanged. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.70 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.37, down 0.03. - The estimated import cost was 840 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,556.80 million tons, up 241.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,645.00 million tons, up 182.70 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,388.02 million tons, down 56.18 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,007.19 million tons, down 58.28 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.00 million tons, down 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18 days, unchanged. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.22 million tons, down 0.57 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.45%, down 0.51%. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 32.71 million tons, down 0.24 million tons. The BDI index was 1,986.00, down 38.00. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.47 US dollars/ton, down 0.11 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.2 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.18%, down 0.16%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.00%, down 0.27%. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.54%, up 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 21.20%, up 0.03%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.49%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.50%, up 0.85% [2]. Industry News - From August 25th to August 31st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,645.0 million tons, up 182.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,526.0 million tons, up 132.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,300.8 million tons, up 147.8 million tons. - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 47 imported ports in China was 14,376.11 million tons, down 12.57 million tons from last Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 13,776.51 million tons, down 22.17 million tons week - on - week [2].