Guotai Junan Securities·2025-09-03 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOC Hong Kong with a target price of HK$42.35, revised from the previous target price of HK$38.50 [2][7]. Core Insights - BOC Hong Kong's net interest income for the first half of 2025 met expectations, while non-interest income significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a 25.8% year-on-year increase in net service fees and commissions [7]. - The bank's operating profit before provisions grew by 16.5% year-on-year, supported by strong cost control with a cost-to-income ratio of 20.8% [7]. - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.02%, which is below the industry average in Hong Kong [7]. - The report highlights potential catalysts for growth, including opportunities in digital assets, cross-border wealth management, and favorable policies that may boost the economy [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, BOC Hong Kong reported a net interest income of HK$51,078 million and a net profit of HK$32,723 million [8]. - The forecast for 2025 includes a net interest income of HK$49,780 million and a net profit of HK$40,814 million, reflecting a 4.4% increase in net profit compared to 2024 [8]. - The bank's basic earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be HK$3.860 for 2025, with a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$2.165, indicating a dividend yield of 6.1% [9]. Share Price Performance - Over the past year, BOC Hong Kong's share price has increased by 53.8%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 11.8% [5][6]. - The average share price over the last three months was HK$35.4, with a recent price of HK$35.220 [5][7].