原油：原油低开后上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. Although the EIA data shows a continued reduction in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and high refinery operating rates, OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken, so it is advisable to short on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The end of the seasonal travel peak season, OPEC+ production increase, possible price cuts by Saudi Arabia, and the increase in the global oil surplus forecast will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Although the price has rebounded due to some factors, the supply - demand situation will weaken later [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 rose 0.69% to 4,932 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 4,864 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 4,960 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,177 to 28,983 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory increase to exceed 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an increase of 800,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. EIA has lowered the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 from $68.89 per barrel to $67.22 per barrel and for 2026 from $58.48 per barrel to $51.43 per barrel. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 by 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, and lowers the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day. As of the week of August 22, US crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was adjusted down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.543 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day in the week of August 22. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.15 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand both increasing month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to continue to increase by 0.50% month - on - month [4][6]