日内下挫，偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate mainly. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the oscillation range of 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton. Although the demand from compound fertilizer factories has some resilience as the autumn fertilizer peak season approaches, the overall market is still affected by factors such as supply surplus and limited demand growth [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened higher and moved strongly in the day, with the spot market fluctuating narrowly and most factory quotes stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1660 - 1690 yuan/ton. The Indian NFL urea import tender received 29 bids, and the market expects the price to be significantly lower than the previous tender result. In terms of fundamentals, production decreased last month due to summer equipment maintenance, but new production capacity will be gradually put into operation. After the parade, factories are gradually resuming production, and the supply - abundant pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, overall demand is expected to improve next week after the parade, but the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories is limited, and the demand for raw materials may be limited. The market will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range in the medium - term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1752 yuan/ton, then declined during the day, and finally closed at 1714 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.89%. The open interest was 232,728 lots (+13,346 lots). Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 11,057 lots and short positions increased by 7,897 lots. Some futures companies had net long or net short positions, such as Zhongtai Futures with +1,872 net long lots and Huatai Futures with +1,949 net short lots [2]. - Spot: The spot market fluctuated narrowly, and most factory quotes were stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1660 - 1690 yuan/ton [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at 6 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton) [8]. - Supply Data: On September 3, 2025, the national daily urea production was 184,400 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 77.92% [9]. - Enterprise Inventory Data: As of September 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from last week, a 0.85% increase. The pre - sale order days were 6.41 days, an increase of 0.35 days from the previous period, a 5.78% increase [13]. - Warehouse Receipts: On September 3, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,205, the same as the previous trading day [3].