冠通每日交易策略-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including copper, lithium carbonate, crude oil, asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, coking coal, and urea, and provides corresponding market outlooks and trading suggestions [9][11][12][15]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - The price of copper is expected to fluctuate strongly. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted, and the new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year. The price index hit the lowest level since February. In China, the import of copper concentrates and the port inventory of concentrates have increased, and the processing fees of smelters have decreased. The production of electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline. The import of copper will affect the domestic market. Although the current consumption is in the off - season, the investment in power grid facilities has increased, but the external demand will weaken in the second half of the year, and the domestic demand has been advanced. The decline of the US dollar index supports the non - ferrous metal market, and the copper inventory is low, with supply tightening and demand expected to enter the peak season [9][11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply is still relatively loose, with the production in Jiangxi shrinking and lithium spodumene making up for the gap. The import volume in July decreased. The market sentiment is bearish, but the decline space is limited [12]. Crude Oil - It is recommended to short at high prices. The EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline in the US has decreased, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC + will increase production in September, and the global oil surplus is expected to increase. The trade situation between the US and India may affect the global oil trade flow. Although the price has rebounded due to some factors, the supply - demand relationship will weaken after the end of the consumption peak season [13][15]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate. The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds, weather, and the price of crude oil. The cost support is limited, and the supply - demand is weak [16]. PP - The PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The cost has rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand is weak but may be boosted in the peak season. The macro - policy on over - capacity will affect the market [17][18]. Plastic - The plastic is expected to fluctuate. The operating rate has increased, and the downstream operating rate has also increased slightly. The cost has rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand is weak but may be improved as the agricultural film enters the stocking period. The macro - policy on over - capacity will affect the market [19]. PVC - The PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is still high, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is large. The real estate market has not improved significantly. The new production capacity is increasing, and the cost support is not strong [20][21]. Coking Coal - The coking coal is expected to be weak. The price has fluctuated, and the supply has been disturbed recently. The downstream coke production is positive, but the steel mill profit has weakened, and the coke price cut has been proposed but not implemented [22]. Urea - The urea is expected to fluctuate. The spot market is stable, and the Indian import tender price is expected to be lower. The supply is still loose, and the demand is expected to improve slightly after the parade. The compound fertilizer factory's demand for raw materials may be limited, and the inventory has increased. The market will be affected by the peak season demand [24].