宝城期货有色日内回落

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: After the Jackson Hole meeting, gold, silver, and copper rose together, with an accelerating upward trend since Friday and a rapidly increasing correlation between gold and copper prices. Technically, copper prices increased with rising positions, breaking through the 80,000 yuan mark with strong upward momentum, expected to maintain a strong performance. A pullback could find support at the 80,000 yuan level. However, as copper prices rose, downstream purchasing willingness declined [4]. - Aluminum: From last night's session to today's close, aluminum prices showed a pattern of increasing positions and rising, then decreasing positions and falling. Macroscopically, non - ferrous metals generally rose last night and fell during the day, with significant differences in capital flow between domestic and foreign markets. Industrially, electrolytic aluminum in the middle reaches continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods slowly reduced inventory. As China enters the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, aluminum prices have repeatedly fallen back after rising above 20,750 yuan since June, facing significant technical pressure [5]. - Nickel: Last night, nickel prices opened lower and fluctuated within a narrow range, maintaining the narrow - range oscillation during the day, and the position volume continued to decline. Industrially, since last week, continuous demonstrations in multiple regions of Indonesia have raised concerns about nickel ore supply, which is favorable for nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices rose and then fell, with a continuous decline in position volume, indicating a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the multi - empty game at the 122,000 yuan level [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: The spot purchasing and sales sentiment in the Shanghai copper market weakened significantly during the day, mainly due to copper prices rising above 80,000 yuan/ton. Most sellers' willingness to sell decreased as copper prices rose, and downstream purchasing willingness also declined significantly. The purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai electrolytic copper market was 3.14, and the sales sentiment was 3.16. On September 3rd, during the first trading session in the morning, most sellers sold at low prices and then became less active in the market [8]. - Nickel: The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel today was in the range of 121,200 - 123,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper canceled warrant ratio, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - Aluminum: There are charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26]. - Nickel: The charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and nickel monthly spread [34][36][38].